What is Canada’s highest overall wildfire-risk city?

Kelowna, B.C. is ranked as Canada’s highest overall wildfire-risk city in 2026, according to a new national study from insurtech MyChoice Financial, Inc.

“While Prairie cities recorded more severe forecast fire weather conditions, Kelowna’s extremely high community exposure, driven by dense wildland-urban interface (WUI) development, surrounding forest fuel, and historical wildfire activity, pushed it to the top overall,” MyChoice says in a blog last week.

MyChoice says Kelowna posted a wildfire risk index (WRI) score of 6.8/10. Regina (9.8/10) and Winnipeg (9.5/10) recorded the country’s highest ‘forecast fire weather severity’ (FFWS) scores. This was followed by Medicine Hat, Brooks, and Lethbridge in Alberta and Saskatoon, “reflecting projected drought, heat, and elevated grassfire conditions across the Prairies during the 2026 fire season.”

For the study, MyChoice analyzed Canada’s 2026 wildfire outlook using Natural Resources Canada’s newly upgraded Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) Seasonal Forecast 2.0 system. The system introduces a new wildfire forecasting methodology based on Environment Canada climate modelling.

Two equally weighted components

To calculate the WRI, MyChoice used two equally weighted components: FFWS (50%) and community exposure (50%).

Among other components, FFWS uses factors such as forecast severity rating (expected intensity of wildfire-weather conditions) and extreme fire weather days (EFWD, estimated number of days with unusually dangerous fire weather).

Community exposure uses factors such as proximity to forests and the WUI, surrounding vegetation and fuel load, historical wildfire activity near each city, development pressure in hazard-prone areas, and remoteness and wildfire suppression accessibility.

MyChoice’s study found Victoria and Vancouver in B.C. posted some of the highest EFWD forecasts in Canada. Victoria is forecast to experience 11 EFWDs during its August peak, the highest among all cities analyzed. Vancouver followed closely with 10.5 projected extreme days despite more moderate overall wildfire severity scores.

Other findings include:

• Kamloops in B.C. and Fort McMurray, Canmore, and Banff in Alberta ranked among Canada’s most structurally exposed wildfire communities — “These cities scored extremely high on community exposure due to their dense forest adjacency, difficult evacuation dynamics, historical wildfire proximity, and high concentration of homes located within the WUI,” the blog says.
• Fort McMurray stood out as one of the study’s biggest contrasts between weather severity and exposure — CFWIS’ new methodology projects relatively low wildfire-weather severity for Fort McMurray in 2026. But the city still ranks among Canada’s highest-risk communities because of its extreme structural exposure and history of catastrophic wildfire losses, including Canada’s costliest natural disaster in 2016 at more than $4 billion.
• Ontario communities’ risk remained “moderate” overall, but Northern Ontario exposure continues to stand out — Kenora ranked as Ontario’s highest wildfire-risk city at 4.9/10, while Timmins, Sudbury, Gravenhurst, and Sault Ste. Marie also recorded elevated exposure scores due to forest proximity, remoteness, and wildfire accessibility challenges.
• 2026 rankings reveal two very different wildfire patterns emerging across Canada — Prairie cities are facing the country’s most severe forecast fire-weather conditions this season, while many British Columbia and Alberta communities continue to rank highly because of long-term structural exposure tied to forest-adjacent development and WUI expansion.

“Canada’s wildfire risk profile is becoming increasingly shaped by where and how communities are built, not just by the weather itself,” MyChoice CEO Aren Mirzaian says. “Some cities may experience moderate seasonal fire-weather conditions this year but still remain highly vulnerable because homes, infrastructure, and evacuation routes are deeply embedded within forest-adjacent areas.”

Jason Contant

Jason has been an award-winning journalist with Canadian Underwriter for more than a decade, including the past three years as associate editor and, before that, as digital editor for seven years.