2016 expected to be among the warmest years, new annual global temperature forecast suggests

The global mean temperature for 2016 is expected to be between 0.72 degrees Celsius (°C) and 0.96°C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0°C, with a central estimate of 0.84°C, according to Met Office, a weather and climate services provider based in the United Kingdom.

“2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, and this forecast suggests 2016 is likely to be at least as warm, if not warmer,” said Met Office research fellow Professor Chris Folland, in a press release issued on Thursday.

Using the 1981-2010 long-term average of 14.3°C, the range is between 0.41°C and 0.65°C, with a central estimate of 0.53°C above the 1981-2010 long-term mean, said Met Office’s annual global temperature forecast.

Man-made global warming, combined with a smaller effect from El Niño from unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean feature within the forecast. The forecast is based on the key drivers of global climate, but doesn’t include random events, such as large volcanic eruptions – which can cause a temporary cooling effect, Met Office said in the release.

The outlook for 2016 is warmer than the organization’s forecast for 2015, which had a range of 0.52°C to 0.76°C and a central estimate of 0.64°C (using the 1961-1990 long-term average). Data from January to October shows the global mean temperature for this year so far is 0.72°C (+/- 0.1°C). [click image below to enlarge]

“The forecast for 2016 – including the range of uncertainties – also places the coming year among the warmest on record,” Met Office said in the release, adding that “the fact that 2014, 2015 and 2016 are all likely to be amongst the warmest years on record” is consistent with earlier outlooks.

“This forecast suggests that by the end of 2016 we will have seen three record, or near-record years in a row for global temperatures,” said Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Met Office.

The organization said that it doesn’t expect this run of back-to-back records to continue indefinitely, but the “current situation shows how global warming can combine with smaller, natural fluctuations to push our climate to levels of warmth which are unprecedented in the data records.”