72% chance of major hurricane making landfall in the United States in 2011: Colorado State University

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project forecast team is predicting an above-average 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season, calling for 16 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Nine of those named storms are expected to turn into hurricanes. Five are predicted to develop into major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.The average number of named storms based on data collected between 1950 and 2000 is 9.6.Colorado forecasters estimated a 72% chance that at least one major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2011 (the long-term average probability is 52%).They also estimated a 48% chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31%). Finally, they predicted a 47% chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30%).”We remain – since 1995 – in a favorable multi-decadal period for enhanced Atlantic Basin hurricane activity, which is expected to continue for the next 10-15 years or so,” said William Gray of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project. “Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-05, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. “This recent nine of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue.”