Africa, South Asia to be hit hard by warming global temperature over next decade

Africa and Asia will be the hardest hit by possible warming global temperatures, especially coastal cities more vulnerable to violent storms, according to a newly-released report from the World Bank Group.

A global temperature rise of  2°C in the next few decades would mean regular food shortages in sub-Saharan Africa, shifting rain patterns in South Asia that would leave some parts under water, and coastal communities in Southeast Asia much more vulnerable to storms, the World Bank argues in the report.

Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience, prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, builds on a World Bank report from last year, which said that without action, the world would warm by 4°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.

“This new report outlines an alarming scenario for the days and years ahead – what we could face in our lifetime,” World Bank Group president Jim Yong Kim noted in a statement.

“The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2°C — warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years —  that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones,” he said.

“In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth’s temperature,” he added.

The report says that in the 2030s, droughts and heat in sub-Saharan Africa will leave 40% of the land now growing maize unable to support that crop, while rising temperatures could cause major loss of savanna grasslands threatening pastoral livelihoods.  

Extreme droughts could also become more common in large parts of India, leading to food shortages, while massive flooding similar to the floods in Pakistan in 2010, could also become more common, the World Bank says.

Throughout South Asia, “the likely movement of impacted communities into urban areas could lead to ever higher numbers of people in informal settlements being exposed to heat waves, flooding, and diseases,” the group says.

“Informal settlements in places like Metro Manila in the Philippines and Kolkata in India concentrate large populations and often lack basic services, such as electricity, sanitation, health, infrastructure, and durable housing,” the World Banks says.“In such areas, people are highly exposed to extreme weather events, such as storms and flooding.”

Infographic: What Climate Change Means for Africa and Asia (View Larger)