Atlantic Canada could see at least one tropical cyclone by early October

Nova Scotia or Newfoundland could see at least one tropical cyclone from September into early October, AccuWeather.com notes in a report released Wednesday.

Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic remain well above normal, notes the report authored by Brett Anderson, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather.com.

As the hurricane season in the Atlantic becomes more active, Anderson writes that at least one tropical cyclone could directly impact Nova Scotia or Newfoundland from September into early October.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States released its outlook for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season in June and updated its outlook in August.

The latest outlook slightly reduced NOAA’s initial forecast, but still predicts an above-normal number of storms.

“Significant activity is expected for the remainder of the season, with an additional 9 to 15 named storms likely, of which 6 to 9 are expected to become hurricanes with 3 to 5 reaching major hurricane status,” the agency reports.

“We’re also reminding Canadians that there is very little correlation between the number of storms that form in the North Atlantic and the number that make their way into Canadian waters, and taking the opportunity to discuss safety measures ahead of potential storms,” Chris Fogarty, program supervisor for the Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC), said in a press release issued in May.

Regardless of the overall number of storms forecast for the entire Atlantic Basin, the CHC responds to four or five tropical cyclone events each year, with one or two of those affecting Canadian soil, and another two or three threatening our offshore waters, the statement notes.

Hurricane season runs from June through November when the waters of the Atlantic Ocean are warm enough to produce a tropical cyclone. Hurricanes typically start to become more of a concern in Canadian waters a bit later in the season.

Unseasonably warm and drier weather is expected to dominate northeastern Canada, including much of Atlantic Canada, this fall, Anderson notes in AccuWeather.com report. It points to a persistent area of high pressure that prevails across the region.

As a whole, the fall is expected to be mild along the St. Lawrence Valley as the region remains under the influence of the high-pressure ridge to the northeast.

More rain than usual is expected for Southern Ontario in September and October, as moist air is funnelled northward from the Gulf of Mexico from time to time. The Greater Toronto Area should continue to receive more rain than usual, especially from late September into October, followed by a colder, drier pattern for November.

The southern Prairies could see an earlier-than-normal freeze from Manitoba to Alberta, while it is anticipated that the Canadian Rockies will see colder, snowy weather established from October through November.

In British Columbia, the period from late September through October could end up slightly wetter than normal in the Vancouver area as the Pacific storm track gets directed toward the southern part of the province.