Below-average 2014 Atlantic hurricane season predicted

Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have released a report predicting a below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2014.

Citing the likely development of an El Niño event and unusual cooling of the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic, members of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team are calling for nine named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The forecast is based on more than 60 years of historical data that include Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels (the change in wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere), El Niño and other factors.

Of the named storms, researchers expect three to become hurricanes and one to reach major hurricane strength, with sustained winds of 111 miles/hour or greater, notes a statement from CSU.

More specifically, the report notes the following: named storms, 9; named storm days, 35; hurricanes, 3; hurricane days, 12; major hurricanes, 1; major hurricane days, 2; accumulated cyclone energy, 55; and net tropical cyclone activity, 60%.

The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall on United States soil:

• 35% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%);
• 20% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%);
• 19% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%); and
• 28% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%).

The project team predicts that 2014 tropical cyclone activity will be about 60% of an average season. In comparison, 2013’s tropical cyclone activity was about 40% of the average season.

The 2014 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1957, 1963, 1965, 1997 and 2002 hurricane seasons, all of which had normal or below-normal activity, forecast co-author Phil Klotzbach notes in the statement.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and the chances of a moderate to strong El Niño event this summer and fall appear to be quite high,” Klotzbach says. “Historical data indicate fewer storms form in these conditions.”

Although the overall activity might be less than usual, Klotzbach cautions coastal residents to take the proper precautions. “It takes only one landfall event near you to make this an active season,” he says.

The CSU team will issue an update to the forecast – which was first issued in a report in 1984 – on June 2 and July 31.