Canadian business leaders list their top risks for 2026

Economic, technological, and societal risks pose the biggest threats to businesses over the next two years, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Executive Opinion Survey.  

Canada’s insurance professionals say natural catastrophes (NatCat) and environmental losses should appear higher on that list. 

WEF’s annual survey shows the Top 5 near-term commercial risks, as selected by more than 11,000 business leaders from 121 countries. In Canada, the Top 5 near-term risks are: 

• Economic downturn (e.g. recession, stagnation) 

• Inflation 

• Misinformation and disinformation 

• Decline in health and well-being 

• Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment 

“Seeing worries about the economy and inflation [high on the Top 5 list] is not really a surprise [given] the environment we’re in,” Manuel Lewin, chief risk officer at Zurich Canada told Canadian Underwriter. “For me, it was almost more telling what’s not on [the list] than what was on it.” 

NatCat activity in Canada in 2024 resulted in a staggering $9 billion in insured property losses. And although losses in 2025 weren’t nearly that high, thanks to seasonally low Cat activity, it will likely land around the “new-normal” range of $3 billion. That’s no small number. 

WEF anticipates extreme weather events will become an even bigger concern than they already are. 

“We’re always counselling our clients to be forward-looking into that..five- or 10-year horizon and making those long-term business strategy decisions based on that,” said Daniel Kotwinski, head of Marsh Advisory Canada. “Given the prevalence and the increase of activity we’ve seen from a catastrophe perspective, especially with all the different wildfires that we’ve seen throughout Canada…our businesses need to stay resilient to that possibility.” 

Adds Lewin: “If we look at how exposure changes over time, certainly also for the commercial side, the share of properties and exposures falling into high-risk zones will increase over time, just as these zones shift. And what is maybe a medium risk today can be a high risk in five- or 10-years’ time. 

Economic risk 

NatCat events can amplify financial strain when insured losses coincide with broader economic pressures. Absent NatCats, it’s already hard for businesses to manage capital, cash flow, and operational stability during periods of economic uncertainty. 

“When they’re thinking about business strategy, they’re focused on maintaining capital to weather a possible economic downturn,” Kotwinski said of business leaders. “What we’re saying is, that needs to be part of a longer-term perspective and [business leaders should] understand where they should be investing in resilience.” 

To help bridge the gap, Kotwinski says analytics and risk-modelling tools can help companies better quantify exposure, including the likelihood and severity of disruptions due to extreme weather, and incorporate those risks into broader business planning. 

“Giving them that view of what’s likely, and what the severity can be, helps them layer that into their business strategy and make informed decisions about where they should invest in resilience,” he said.  

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Also, as business leaders flag economic risk as a near-term concern, insurance advisors must ensure their clients don’t make cost-cutting decisions that jeopardize their coverage.  

“As companies renew their policies, we want to make sure the value of their insured assets reflects that [inflationary environment],” said Lewin. “The other component is… the risk of cost-cutting expense measures.

“Our risk engineers are making sure that, as they visit our customer sites and provide their advice on how risks can be mitigated, [they need to]…make sure these standards don’t slip.” 

Alyssa DiSabatino

Alyssa Di Sabatino has been a reporter for Canadian Underwriter since 2021, covering industry trends, market developments, and emerging risks.