Colorado State researchers maintain forecast for active Caribbean/Atlantic hurricane season

Researchers at Colorado State University’s meteorology project are calling for a “very active” hurricane season in the Caribbean in 2011. Scientists refer to the ‘accumulated cyclone energy’ (ACE) of the region. The ACE is a measure of a named storm’s potential for wind and storm surge destruction. It’s defined as the sum of the square of a named storm’s maximum wind speed for each six-hour period of its existence.”Our forecast model is calling for an ACE of 37, while the 1949-2008 average ACE for post-31 July ACE in Caribbean is 13,” Phip Klotzbach and William Gray said in their Aug. 2, 2011 forecast. Klotzbach and Gray are also forecasting a 70% change of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline. The chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. east coast – including Florida’s peninsula – is 46%, the researchers predict. There is a 45% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the Gulf Coast.