How many hurricanes to expect in 2025

Expect an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, with four major hurricanes — Category 3-5 — according to predictions by Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers.

Category 3-5 hurricanes feature sustained wind speeds of more than 178 km/h. An average of 3.2 major hurricanes have formed during any given season over the past 30 years. Hurricane season typically starts in June and ends in November.

Overall, CSU is predicting 17 named storms and nine hurricanes in 2025. The 30-year average from 1991-2020 is 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NCEI Coastal Water Temperature Guide shows current Atlantic Ocean water temperatures along several coastal areas near Florida, the Carolinas and Georgia are 2-5 degrees Fahrenheit warner than average for the month. Warmer waters typically provide fuel for stronger hurricanes, as CSU observes.

“A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water,” says CSU. “Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.”

The wild card is the duration of El Nino conditions, which refers to a Pacific Ocean climate pattern affecting sea temperatures and trade wind direction. Forecasters note El Nino conditions are transitioning into La Nina conditions, a process referred to as to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast to El Nino, La Nina events feature the absence of wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean that can reduce hurricane formation.

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“There remains considerable uncertainty as to what the phase of ENSO will be during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October,” CSU’s researchers say. “However, the odds of El Niño are quite low (13% per the latest NOAA outlook).

“El Niño – a recurring climate pattern – tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These increased upper-level winds result in increased vertical wind shear, disfavoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.

“The absence of these conditions, as we anticipate this year, is generally associated with hurricane-conducive upper-level wind conditions across the tropical Atlantic. Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of a warm Atlantic and the unlikelihood of El Niño, the CSU forecast team is predicting an above-normal season.”

CSU predicted six major hurricanes for 2024, and there were five: Beryl, Helene, Kirk, Milton and Rafael. Hurricane Debby — which drenched parts of Montreal with 173 mm of rain last August, causing about $2.5 billion in insured flood damage — was a Category 1 storm.

David Gambrill

David has twice served as Canadian Underwriter’s senior editor, both from 2005 to 2012, and again from 2017 to the present.