Wildfires: Why it’s too soon to tell what the 2025 season has in store

Fire season may be off to a roaring start, but it could be premature to conclude it’ll be an above-average year, says Glenn McGillivray, managing director of the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR).

“Typically, a couple of weeks in June usually dictates how it will all go,” McGillivray tells Canadian Underwriter Monday. “If that time is perhaps cooler with precipitation, or at least low humidity, things may change.

“This is the thing about wildfire. I have seen the national fire danger maps show lots of ‘hot’ oranges and reds one day, and be almost all ‘cooler’ blues and greens a day or two later.

“This is how fast conditions can change, and what makes wildfire difficult to model.”

Indeed, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre has its agency fire danger level at a red Level 5, or extreme, as of June 1. Its national preparedness level is at the highest ranking of 5, meaning “wildland fire activity is significant within one or more jurisdictions. Firefighters and equipment in every jurisdiction in Canada is put to use, and international help has been requested.”

Allowing for the nature of rapidly changing wildfire conditions, it seems 2025 will likely be an active season, McGillivray says. Several current fires are hold-over fires from last year — blazes that go underground for the winter and resurface in spring in what the media likes to call ‘zombie’ fires, McGillivray says. “That they seem to be ‘all happening at once’ is a byproduct of current conditions: Hot, dry and windy.”

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States of emergency declared

Saskatchewan and Manitoba have declared states of emergency, and multiple fires are raging out of control in the western provinces and near the Ontario-Manitoba border.

In Alberta, there are eight “wildfires of note,” seven of which are listed as out of control as of June 1. The Red Earth East Complex is made up of numerous wildfires centred in the northeastern portion of the Slave Lake Forest Area. Numerous communities remain under evacuation order, and several wildfires are burning out of the control in the area, including a massive 132,167-hectare blaze near Chipewyan Lakes.

As of early Monday morning, Saskatchewan was experiencing 15 active wildfires. To date, there have been 216 wildfires compared to 172 at the same time last time. This is well above the five-year-to-date average of 131.

“We are seeing the devastating effects of wildfires impact communities across our province,” Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says in a May 29 press release. “Therefore, today we are making a provincial declaration of emergency to mobilize the resources necessary to safely evacuate Saskatchewan residents and to protect our communities.

“This declaration provides enhanced powers to the Minister and [Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency] that may be required to help address this unprecedented start of the fire season.”

Manitoba is also seeing increased wildfire activity so far this year. Manitoba Wildfire Service continues to respond to 25 active wildfires across the province. To date, the province has seen 106 wildfires; the average for this date is 84.

Claims will undoubtedly pour in from the wildfires across the country, but what the claims situation will be like overall is a difficult question to answer, McGillivray says.

“There have been some structures lost so far this season, but we don’t have any decent numbers,” he says. “In fact, we have no idea how many homes are lost each year to wildfire. I think this is an important public policy question that would be good to know the answer to.”

The Canadian Press reported more than 17,000 people have been evacuated from Manitoba, including all 5,000 residents of Flin Flon. Saskatchewan has relocated about 8,000 people, while Alberta has evacuated about 5,000.

“I also get the sense that wildfire evacuations are costing insurers a decent amount of money due to additional living expenses but, again, we have no idea how much and whether this number is trending up,” McGillivray says. “Another important public policy question that would be good to know.”

Jason Contant

Jason has been an award-winning journalist with Canadian Underwriter for more than a decade, including the past three years as associate editor and, before that, as digital editor for seven years.