Impact Forecasting launches new Alberta flood scenario model

Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development arm of Aon Benfield, has launched a new scenario model for the recent flooding in Alberta.

The model uses event footprints that outline the extent of the flood, allowing insurers to obtain a more realistic estimate of their specific exposure, Impact noted in a statement.

The footprint of the Alberta flood event is based on an image from SERTIT, distributed by PERILS AG.

It is then manually processed to correct areas originally covered by clouds and converted to ELEMENTS format so it can be uploaded to the Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation platform.

In ELEMENTS, the hazard is then superimposed onto the insurer’s portfolio to calculate exposed sums insured.

“This scenario model illustrates the global scope of an open platform, such as ELEMENTS, where third party data can be used to quantify clients’ exposure in areas with no existing models available prior to the event,” noted Steve Jakubowski, president of Impact Forecasting.

“For the Alberta floods, ELEMENTS provides more accurate results based on the proportion of sums insured affected rather than the entire sums insured for each administrative unit or postal code,” Martin Kadlec, a flood model developer with Impact Forecasting also noted.

“Additionally, the affected sums insured within each area do not blindly follow the location of the floods, but are weighted by population density data,” he added. “Both of these parameters make this model more beneficial than simple GIS based analyses.”

The footprint is also available on ImpactOnDemand, Aon Benfield’s platform that allows clients to visualize and quantify their exposures to risk, in addition to performing sophisticated, detailed data analysis.