Impact Forecasting launches scenario model for Germany floods

Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development centre arm of Aon Benfield, has launched a scenario model of the recent severe floods in Germany.

The model uses event footprints that show the extent of the flood, to allow insurers to gain a “more realistic” estimate of their exposure, according to Impact.

The flood footprint is based on images from the German Aerospace Center and Astrium Services/Infoterra GmbH, which are publicly available due to the International Charter “Space and Major Disasters,” and from SERTIT supplied by PERILS.

The footprints are then converted to ELEMENTS format and uploaded to the Impact Forecasting’s loss calculation platform.

In ELEMENTS, the hazard is then superimposed onto the insurer’s portfolio to calculate exposed sums insured. Insurers can chose from three different footprints based on either of the two individual sources provided or through a combination of both.

#Flood waters receding in parts but clean-up/repair needs remain in Germany; #ERGO first responders on scene to help twitter.com/MunichRe/statu…

— Munich Re (@MunichRe) June 13, 2013

The footprints will also be updated as flooding continues.

Economic damages from the floods in Germany are estimated to be more than the severe events there in 2002, and may reach 12 billion euros, with insured losses of between 2.5 billion and 3 billion euros, according to Fitch Ratings.