Latest insured loss estimate for July 2024 Ontario floods

Flash flooding in southern Ontario last July caused an estimated $899 million in insured damage, Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ) says in its latest industry loss estimate, one-year post-event.

The flooding in southern Ontario on July 15 and 16, 2024 saw a month’s worth of rain (100 millimetres) fall in Toronto in the span of a few hours, Canadian Underwriter reported at the time. The rainstorm submerged stretches of highway, halted subway service, and flooded commercial and residential buildings across the city and beyond.

The event was one of four major summer Cats last year, which saw a record-breaking $9 billion in insured losses. The other major Cats in summer 2024 included flooding in Quebec from the remnants of Hurricane Debby (more than $2.5 billion), the Jasper wildfire ($1.31 billion) and the record-breaking Calgary hailstorm ($3.25 billion).

July 2024’s flash flooding figures are the fifth loss estimate for the event, down from the most recent estimate of $991 million issued by CatIQ on Jan. 17, 2025, says a press release from PERILS AG, of which Toronto-based CatIQ is a subsidiary.

The loss number covers property — both commercial and residential — and vehicle claims, including loss adjustment expenses. Personal property related losses represent the majority of the estimate, accounting for more than 85% of the total claims and more than 75% of the total loss, PERILS reports.

The sixth and final update of the market loss from the flooding will be available July 16, 2026 — two years after the event end date.

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The flooding was initially speculated to top $1 billion in losses, with estimates then downgraded to $940 million and then up to $991 million.

Heavy rainfall on July 15 and 16 sparked extensive flash flooding in southern Ontario, including in Toronto and the Greater Toronto Area. Two-day rainfall amounts exceeded 120 mm in some places, including at Toronto Pearson Airport (123 mm), PERILS says.

“The one-year data shows a modest decrease in the number of personal claims but a noticeable drop in the incurred costs, along with a corresponding decrease of about nine per cent in the average personal claim size,” says CatIQ director Caroline Floyd. “That suggests that, in addition to companies releasing reserve amounts, some claims may have been feeling the effects of policy and coverage limits as they’ve been resolved.

“With about 90 per cent of total claims reporting as closed as of the one-year mark, it will be interesting to see if those yet-outstanding claims follow the same trend by the final loss estimate issued next year.”

Jason Contant

Jason has been an award-winning journalist with Canadian Underwriter for more than a decade, including the past three years as associate editor and, before that, as digital editor for seven years.