Some forecasters predicting floods for southern Alberta, others say too soon

CALGARY – There may still be plenty of snow on the ground, but flood forecasters are already looking ahead to the spring melt.

David Sauchyn, a researcher with the Prairie Adaption Research Collaborative, says he expects many wet years ahead for Alberta.

Sauchyn says the scientific evidence show that floods tend to be grouped together over time.

He says the El Nino phenomenon is primarily to blame for what’s expected to be wetter than average years.

However, experts with the Provincial River Forecasting Centre say it’s still too soon to tell if this could be another high-risk year for floods.

Colleen Walford, a river forecaster with Alberta Environment, says the snowpack is a key element in flood risk for southern Alberta.

She says it’s average right now and isn’t expected to really melt until May or June.

Last June, devastating floods hit Calgary and southern Alberta, displacing about 100,000 people and destroying or damaging more than 14,000 homes.

The province expects it will have paid about $1.7 billion when recovery and flood mitigation efforts are completed years down the road. The federal government will chip in $2.8 billion under a federal disaster recovery program, but that number is expected to go higher.

Private insurers are expected to pay $1.7 billion.