Annual sales of autonomous-capable vehicles expected to reach 85 million by 2035: report

Annual sales of autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to reach 85 million by 2035, according to a report released this week by Navigant Research, a market research and consulting company that provides analysis of global clean technology markets.

The report, Autonomous Vehicles, provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for different levels of fully and semi-autonomous driving. The study also provides a discussion of the potential benefits, demand drivers, inhibitors and technology issues related to advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous vehicles. In addition, it includes an assessment of how quickly the percentage of vehicles with some autonomous capability will grow within the six major world regions.

“Studies have shown that measurable improvements in traffic flow can be expected if as few as 10% of vehicles on a road are using adaptive cruise control, which is just one type of advanced driver assistance,” said Dave Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research, in a press release. “One of the challenges is not just to get the systems installed, but to provide incentives for people to use them on a daily basis.”

An important consideration for this market, according to the report, is how quickly the technology will spread to the installed base of vehicles on the road. Over the next five years, increasingly sophisticated driver assistance systems are expected to be introduced by a wide range of manufacturers, and it is important to understand the capability of the technology and how much driver interaction is required as new features are introduced, the release said.

The first combinations of advanced driver assistance features, now available in some 2016 vehicle models, offer semi-autonomous driving under specific circumstances. “Cars will soon have the ability to cruise on freeways and safely navigate traffic jams with minimal driver input,” said the report’s executive summary. “As a result of increasing volumes and technology improvements, as well as cost reductions, it is now feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability.”

The industry consensus is that more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020, the executive summary said, adding that such features will enable more complex automated driving, but still require some supervision by a competent driver.

However, the obstacles to autonomous functionality are not all technological. While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles to clear before the rollout of self-driving vehicles to the public are related to liability, regulation, and legislation. “In the long term, though, autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to institute major change in personal mobility, particularly in large cities,” the report concluded.