Conning forecast for P&C industry shows modest growth

The property and casualty insurance industry will see improving growth through 2014, but this will be tempered with a low interest rate environment and a sluggish economy recovery, according to research firm Conning.

“Conning’s 2012 forecast is for net premium growth over 2011 approaching 4%, as insurers benefit from a more stable economy and modest firming in commercial lines pricing,” says Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning in its Property-Casualty Industry Forecast & Analysis. “The 2012 forecast combined ratio of above 103% includes a projected average annual natural catastrophe loss of about $20 billion.”

Looking further ahead, Conning predicts premium growth of 5% in 2013 and 5.5% in 20124, with the combined ratio dropping below 103% by 2014.