Pandemic today not likely as severe as 1918 Spanish Flu

A pandemic today is not likely to be as severe as that of the 1918 Spanish Flu, according to a report by Munich Re. “The conclusion drawn in the current issue of Topics (1/2007) is that today, due to medical and technical advances, the mortality rate in the event of a pandemic would be much lower than in the past — certainly below that of the Spanish Flu, which claimed between 25 and 50 million lives worldwide in 1918,” Munich Re concluded. “On the insurance side, Munich Re is no more exposed than in the case of larger natural catastrophes.”

Munich Re noted that on the investments side, it is assumed that a pandemic, along the lines of that outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO), “would impact the global economy and the capital markets only for a certain period of time.”

It’s not a matter of whether or not a pandemic will happen, Munich Re reported, but rather when the next pandemic will happen.

“Although the threat of a pandemic this winter had mainly disappeared from the media due to the almost complete absence of instances of bird flu in Europe, experts are largely in agreement that the next pandemic is sure to come,” Munich Re reported. “The only question [is] when and how extensive it will be.

“As opposed to natural hazards, there are insufficient and no fully reliable statistical data as regards the pandemic scenario.”