Coastal flood mapping reveals major risks for infrastructure

SUNSHINE COAST, B.C. – By 2050, today’s king tides could become the everyday reality for parts of the Sunshine Coast — and new maps show just how close critical infrastructure is to the water’s edge.

At School District 46 (SD46)’s Nov. 25 Operations Committee meeting, trustees heard sobering details about the new coastal flood mapping project that highlights significant vulnerabilities along the Sunshine Coast. The Sunshine Coast Regional District (SCRD) leads the project in collaboration with local governments and shíshálh Nation, which provides detailed maps showing how rising seas and storm surges could impact communities. 

“Sea level rise is caused by global warming,” explained Raphael Shay, SCRD’s Manager of Sustainable Development, at the meeting. “We’re locked into a meter of sea level rise for sure, even if we cut all global emissions right now.”

The maps are available through the SCRD online property viewer, along with model scenarios for sea level rise of 0.5, 1, and 2 metres.

Critical areas highlighted include Davis Bay and Madeira Park, where essential infrastructure such as fire halls, sports fields and sections of the highway may be inundated within decades.

Shay noted an urgency to planning, saying, “The king tide of today will be the regular tide in about 2050.”

When asked about the Medeira Park Elementary field, which is currently undergoing drainage work, Shay responded that the school itself is on a high point, but overland flooding and water table changes could still pose risks.

Aside from inundation, the study shows wind and wave effects across 500 km of coastline to determine worst-case scenarios.

Shay also warned that piecemeal shoreline hardening could worsen wave impacts and advocated for “an entire Coast approach” as well as green-shores strategies. 

Planning remains complex. The SCRD lacks a drainage function, which limits its ability to handle stormwater. Shay said officials are exploring options while considering cascading climate impacts such as atmospheric rivers and saltwater intrusion.

Residents can view the maps online. Shay noted a B.C guideline to prepare for a 1-metre sea level rise by the year 2100 and a 50 cm rise by 2050, which he reiterated is “just around the corner.”

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Jordan Copp is Coast Reporter’s civic and Indigenous affairs reporter. This reporting beat is made possible by the Local Journalism Initiative.