What insurers can expect from this year’s hurricane season

Hurricane experts are forecasting a near to below-historical average Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, with between two and four major hurricanes (Category 3+).

A developing El Niño may hold overall tropical activity to near or below historical average levels, especially in the second half and climatological peak of the season, AccuWeather says in a press release Wednesday. Rapid intensification in very warm waters and ‘homegrown development’ near the U.S. coastline are two other key concerns this hurricane season.

The AccuWeather 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast calls for 11-16 named storms, four to seven hurricanes, three to five direct U.S. impacts, and two to four major hurricanes (Category 3+, or those with winds between about 178 km/h and 208 km/h that can cause devastating damage).

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, although tropical development may begin earlier due to exceptionally warm waters, AccuWeather reports. Still, the 2026 season is forecast to fall below the 10-year average for both total storms and hurricanes, even at the higher end of AccuWeather’s forecast.

The developing El Niño is expected to increase disruptive wind shear and reduce storm activity, especially later in the season, AccuWeather says. Essentially, strong (disruptive) wind shear can “destroy the storm’s structure” by displacing warm air above the hurricane’s eye, the U.S. National Weather Service reports.

AccuWeather long-range experts estimate a 15% possibility of a Super El Niño developing in the second half of the hurricane season. AccuWeather defines a Super El Niño as “ocean temperatures reaching 2 degrees C or greater above average in the ENSO [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] region.”

“The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10,” AccuWeather says in the release. “If a Super El Niño occurs, there could be even less activity in the Atlantic.”

El Niño vs. La Niña

On average, El Niño seasons produce about 10 named storms and five hurricanes, compared to 15 storms and eight hurricanes during La Niña years. Neutral seasons average 13 named storms and seven hurricanes.

Another factor influencing the Atlantic hurricane season is exceptionally warm Atlantic waters. Heat extends hundreds of feet deep, fuelling stronger storm and increasing the risk of rapid intensification.

“Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms,” says AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. “As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season.” 

Homegrown development near the U.S. is another concern. Storms may form close to the U.S. in the Gulf, western Carribean, or western Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast.

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“Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate,” DaSilva explains. “These ‘homegrown development’ storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic.” 

Following the first hurricane season in a decade without a U.S. hurricane landfall, AccuWeather experts warn that the risk of direct U.S. impacts is elevated this year. Even with fewer storms expected overall, there is potential for multiple direct U.S. impacts this season, including early-season or even pre-season development.

Seasons with fewer named storms can still produce destructive outcomes, AccuWeather warns. The 2025 season produced three extremely powerful Category 5 hurricanes despite near-average named storms. And the 1992 season had just seven named storms, but included Hurricane Andrew, one of the most destructive hurricanes on record.

Jason Contant

Jason has been an award-winning journalist with Canadian Underwriter for more than a decade, including the past three years as associate editor and, before that, as digital editor for seven years.