Why Atlantic Canada is at increased risk of getting hit by a hurricane this year

Dangerously warm waters in the Gulf and Atlantic basin are creating the conditions for rapid hurricane intensification and increasing the likelihood of a landfall in the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.

When Hurricane Erin passed through the Atlantic basin, it churned up cold water below the ocean surface. That reduced the likelihood of storm intensification immediately behind it, because of the cooler water temperatures, AccuWeather noted at the time.

But only one storm has touched the Gulf this season, which has allowed waters in the Gulf to warm up and increase the risk of rapid storm intensification. Warm water can act as fuel for hurricanes.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the Gulf is “currently like a giant bathtub,” with water temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit. 

“If anything goes in there, it almost certainly will become a major hurricane. The ocean heat content, or the depth of warm ocean water in the Gulf and western Caribbean, is near record high levels,” AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva says. “This is extremely concerning.”

AccuWeather’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast, issued in March, predicted three to five major (Category 3 to 5) hurricanes this year. It warned areas along the Gulf Coast — Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida Gulf — had a higher-than-average risk of a direct hurricane impact this year. So did areas near the Atlantic basin.

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“Atlantic Canada, the North Carolina coastline, the northeastern Caribbean, Puerto Rico and the United States Virgin Islands are also at an increased risk of direct impacts this season.” 

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10. AccuWeather’s meteorologists expect the second half of the season to include more named storms than the first half of the season. 

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Rapid Intensification

AccuWeather notes Hurricane Erin, which brushed past Atlantic Canada last month, is the latest example of rapid intensification in the Atlantic basin.

“Last month, Erin’s maximum sustained winds increased a staggering 85 mph within 24 hours, allowing the storm to explode in the warm waters from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane,” DaSilva says. “Erin is the latest case of extremely rapid intensification, when maximum sustained winds increase 58 mph or more within 24 hours.”

Rapid intensification means people have less time to prepare for a landfall hit.

“Storms that rapidly intensify near the coast leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to react, prepare, and evacuate,” DaSilva says. “We have been encouraging people since the beginning of the hurricane season to stock up on emergency supplies, check their insurance policies, and take time to review local evacuation zones and evacuation routes.

“It takes time to board up buildings, open emergency shelters, and set up evacuation contraflow. Rapidly intensifying storms can leave people with little time to react, so preparation is key.”

Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Atlantic, but the U.S. National Hurricane Center is tracking a disorganized band of showers and thunderstorms in the Tropical Atlantic that has an 80% of becoming a hurricane over the next seven days.  

David Gambrill

David has twice served as Canadian Underwriter’s senior editor, both from 2005 to 2012, and again from 2017 to the present.