U.S. forecaster predicts higher-than-average hurricane season for 2025

There is a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year, with a prediction of three to five major hurricanes (winds of 111 mp/h or higher) in the Atlantic basin, according to the U.S.-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

If average hurricane stats in Canada hold true, there’s a 35% to 40% chance one of these major hurricanes will enter Atlantic Canada’s “response zone,” an area in and around Atlantic Canada established by storm forecasts and potential impact areas.

“We look at the number of storms that enter our response zone compared to, say, the overall total number of storms in the Atlantic,” Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC)’s Canadian Hurricane Centre, said at a media briefing Friday. “Really, the only [major] storm last year was Ernesto, so the percentage of storms entering our response zone last year was low.

“But overall, if you look at the average…about 35 to 40% of the storms that form in the Atlantic somehow find their way into our response zone. So we can count on, typically, two to four hurricanes or tropical storms that will enter our response zone on any given year. Not all of those will have impacts on land. And, like we saw last year, sometimes they can have indirect impacts.”

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Last year, remnants of Hurricane Debby tracked inland through Montreal, dropping 173 mm of rain in 24 hours in some areas of Quebec and causing extensive flood damage. Insured damage caused by Debby amounted to more than $2.8 billion, according to Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc. (CatIQ). And that was an “indirect” hit.

Five major hurricanes formed in the Atlantic last year, Robichaud noted. Of these, only Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Atlantic Canada as a Category 2 hurricane; even then, the storm only brushed past Newfoundland and Labrador.

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In 2025, NOAA says, “the season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions [i.e. between La Nina and El Nino conditions], warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favour tropical storm formation.”

During his media briefing, Robichaud noted that Atlantic Ocean water temperatures were at near-record highs last year, whereas this year, they are just slightly above average.

“What stands out is the record warmth that we saw last year in the Atlantic is no longer there,” he said. “This year, the water temperatures in the Atlantic are somewhat overall warmer than the long term average, but much closer to that average than they were last year.”

The question is how that will play out during this year’s hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30.

David Gambrill

David has twice served as Canadian Underwriter’s senior editor, both from 2005 to 2012, and again from 2017 to the present.