2026 Executive Outlook | Greg Smith, Crawford & Company Canada

Canada’s property and casualty insurance industry is going to see impacts from an economic shift in 2026. That includes lower interest rates from the Bank of Canada, layoffs across sectors and other signals suggesting that Canada’s heading for an economic slowdown. This will create unique challenges in the claims space.

When policyholders face financial hardship, there’s often a correlation with opportunistic fraud, in which policyholders inflate claims in an attempt to recover higher damages. Enhanced detection and analytics will be required to uncover fraud during claims handling processes while supporting policyholder service.

We can also expect economic headwinds to increase social inflation – placing higher demands in casualty lines. As economic hardship manifests in claimants’ demands, defendants’ costs will be higher.

Additionally, commercial insurance buyers facing economic hardship will create challenges. Businesses feeling economic strain may be more likely to file insurance claims, even for amounts on the borderline of the deductible or self-insured retention.

Also, as economic strain causes corporations to pull back on maintenance investments, we anticipate a trickle-down impact of increasing claims that arise from a lack of good repair. For claims adjusters, heading these challenges off will require sensitivity to what policyholders are experiencing. Empathy and understanding go a long way when people are facing economic hardships. Arriving at good outcomes for both policyholders and carriers will require creativity.

The claims industry can help address 2026’s economic challenges by supporting more thorough investigations and making sure we use the skills and experience of our onsite adjusters. This will include making observations and collecting evidence about the true nature of loss to help detect and contain opportunistic fraud.

Keeping costs down will be a priority across the board – not just for policyholders but also for their insurers and claims professionals.