AI, NatCats, talent and geopolitics: What will 2026 bring?

Artificial intelligence (AI) may not necessarily eliminate jobs in the Canadian P&C insurance industry, but it could result in attrition, says Klaus Navarrete, managing director and chief agent with HDI Global SE Canada.

“What I envision in years to come is that our hiring pace may gradually slow compared to the past, and will focus on other skills,” he says in an interview with Canadian Underwriter. “So, the hiring might…be reduced, not by eliminating people, but just by not replacing them moving forward.”

Navarrete spoke with CU about his insurance predictions for the commercial property and casualty insurance space in 2026. Some of his insights for next year revolve around AI, NatCats, talent management and the geopolitical environment.

Artificial intelligence

Insurance and other industries are already using AI in a variety of initiatives, including training and awareness campaigns.

“We do believe that AI will likely become a game-changer for the industry,” Navarrete says. “So, it’s absolutely essential for us that we embrace this new emerging technology and, of course, then integrate it into our operations.”

For insurance companies, AI is being used for efficiency and effectiveness. For example, on the underwriting side, it’s being used to gather and analyze information for risk profiles.

Navarrete believes AI may not necessarily eliminate jobs in the industry, but may result in attrition.

NatCat exposures

Despite overall terms softening, reinsurers will remain disciplined into 2026 when it comes to NatCat risk, given increasingly frequent and severe NatCat losses in recent years, Navarrete says.

“We need to be prepared to expect there to be a higher increase in NatCat losses,” he says. “In Canada, we need to make sure that the models that we’re using really build that into our predictions for next year and we’re prepared for it.”

Talent management

Talent management will remain a challenge for the industry next year.

“There’s just a very large number of seasoned experts retiring,” Navarrete says. “We are often in a position where we have to hire younger, inexperienced people and develop them.

“We need to be sure that we find suitable people in our industry that we can fast-track. We want to equip them with the skills to basically step into the roles of those people who have left the industry.”

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Along with that comes knowledge transfer. “We’ve tried in past years to document as much knowledge as possible so that it can be easily transferred to the younger generation,” he says.

Geopolitical environment

The current geopolitical environment, including tariffs and global trade disputes, means more foreign insurance companies are looking to set up base in Canada, Navarrete says.

“What we’ve noticed is…there’s more interest [for] foreign insurance companies to establish themselves in a safe geopolitical environment,” he says. “I don’t foresee it’s going to change quickly.

“We actually see there’s an increased interest of foreign insurance companies setting up operations in Canada because of that [geopolitical environment], especially from Southeast Asia…” Navarrete says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we see new insurance carriers applying for licences.”

Jason Contant

Jason has been an award-winning journalist with Canadian Underwriter for more than a decade, including the past three years as associate editor and, before that, as digital editor for seven years.